Update for September 29-30

Over the past few days, Putin have been indirectly threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, claiming that they will use such weapons in the "defense" of Russia. On September 30th, Putin formally declared that four Ukrainian oblasts are now "Russia" and said Russia would "defend our land with all the powers and means at our disposal." He said the United States is the only country that used nuclear weapons to destroy two cities. And, "Even today, they actually occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and other countries, and at the same time cynically call them allies of equal standing." He went on to blame "historical colonialism," "the gays," "religious freedom," "the liberals," and all of the similar batshit crazy talking points you hear weak-minded idiots rant and rave about all over the world. Many of whom, no doubt, have been influenced by Russian propaganda over the past few decades.

In response, and almost certainly with prior approval from Biden, Truss, and Macron, Zelenskyy formally submitted Ukraine's request for an accelerated process for joining NATO. In addition, he said that Ukraine would never negotiate with Putin and that negotiations cannot begin until Russia elects a new president.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held a press conference where he stated that Russia is waging an illegal war, the occupied territories are still Ukraine, and all of the other typical statements you'd expect. However, in questioning, he made two comments.

"President Putin's nuclear rhetoric is dangerous. It is reckless. NATO is of course, vigilant. We monitor closely what Russia does. Russia must understand that nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought. And it will have severe consequences for Russia if they use nuclear weapons. And this has been very clearly conveyed to Russia. So we will continue to support Ukraine. And we will continue to support them in their efforts to liberate even more territory because they have the right to do so."

"So NATO's aim, what we are doing is support Ukraine, but at the same time preventing escalation by sending a clear message to Moscow about the dangerous nuclear rhetoric and the consequences the use of nuclear weapons will have, and by demonstrating our readiness to defend and protect all Allies, by increasing the presence of NATO troops and sea and air capabilities in eastern part of the Alliance."

These comments suggest that NATO's behavior would dramatically change if Russia used nuclear weapons.

American Senator, Lindsey Graham, who lacks the wisdom or charisma to speak diplomatically, decided to say things more bluntly.

"If Putin would actually explode a nuclear weapon inside of Ukraine to stand all of us down and back us off, I think the reaction should be overwhelming. It should be catastrophic to Russia… The use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine would be an attack on NATO itself."

Politicians around NATO have expressed a similar sentiment, from Poland to Canada. Perhaps some more diplomatically than others.

These two events, the speech by Putin and the other by Zelenskyy, are two of the most important events of the war to date.

In the same vein of escalation, though, a new American weapon is spotted in Ukraine. The M30A1 is a warhead launched by the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) on vehicles like HIMARS. It is the same precision rocket, but instead of having a giant high explosive charge, the warhead consists of thousands of tungsten balls. It is essentially a gigantic shotgun designed to shred infantry and light vehicles.

Ukraine received new missiles for HIMARS/M270 - modification of M30A1

The M30A1/A2 differs from the previously used M31A1/A2 in an alternative warhead with 180,000 preformed spheroidal tungsten fragments placed around the explosive charge. pic.twitter.com/sTiZDt2pwc

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) September 30, 2022

Imagine the damage potential of precision-guided warheads of this type. Also, remember that Russia is calling up hundreds of thousands of conscripts who will not have armor. This weapon entering the battlefield at this point tells us that the United States feels that Russia is running out of vehicles and will begin to rely on light infantry. Light infantry will now be in extreme danger and likely suffer catastrophic casualties.

Speaking of catastrophic casualties, Ukraine intercepted a transmission of a Russian platoon leader asking for a medivac for his wounded men. Instead, his commander told him to bury the wounded. When the platoon leader pushed back, the commander said he didn't care and that this was an order for everyone. Yes, a direct order to bury wounded men.

Russia further expressed their disregard for human life by launching a series of strikes on Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia via air and ground-launched missiles, suicide drones, rockets, and ballistic missiles. These attacks caused significant damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure—for example, bus depots, electrical substations, and apartment buildings.

In Zaporizhzhia, Russia fired a missile into a humanitarian convoy killing 30 and wounding 88 more. Two children died, aged 11 and 14, and a three-year-old is in critical condition. Many in the convoy are volunteers who deliver medication and food to people, mostly elderly, stranded in the occupied territory.

By the way, Rybar, a Russian propagandist, said this about the attack:

"Today's shelling of our own citizens is intended to demonstrate that any attempt to leave to the territory of the Russian Federation is not only undesirable, but will be punishable by death."

What a psycho.

In Dnipro, one died, and five were wounded by missile strikes. Russia fired missiles into a bus depot, destroying 52 buses and damaging 98 more. Russia called the bus depot a "workshop for tactical missiles."

In Kharkiv, seven were wounded by shelling, plus more by landmines.

A 10-story building got hit in Mykolaiv, three died, and 20 more were wounded.

But, of course, I am only talking about a subset of the strikes and damage. Russia damaged hospitals, schools, gyms, bakeries, retail stores, government buildings, houses, apartment buildings, water and gas pipes, and electrical power lines.

Terrorism is the only word that applies.

Moving on to news from the front, Russia is shelling border regions in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv.

In Kharkiv, there is still tremendous danger from mines. Nearly every day, I read about a civilian killed or maimed by a mine. Ukraine is doing its best to clear these mines, but it will take years. They are reporting around 1200-1400 mines cleared per day. By recently published mines per hectare estimates, that is likely around 60 hectares, .6 square km, or .23 square miles per day. At this rate, it will take 44 years to clear Kharkiv of mines.

I have very little clarity about the situation around Kupyansk. I have the feeling not much has changed. Ukraine may have captured Tavilzhanka (A), Lyman Pershyi (B), Synkivka (C), Petropavlivka (D), Kuryivka (E), and Novoosynove (F) or any combination thereof. I have not seen much information about these towns.

However, I have heard that Ukraine continues to cause massive, truly horrific casualties to Russia in this area. I do not believe Ukraine has much incentive to move from its positions. Instead, they watch Russians move into known defensive positions and then destroy them with artillery. Then watch another group go in. Over and over again. As I stated earlier, Russia is not medivacking the wounded. The casualties are enormous and, without medical care, even moderate wounds become lethal.

Near Borova, there are fierce battles in Pidlyman (1) and likely battles near Nyzhnya Zhuravka (2). North of Borova is quiet, but everyone is hunkered down in their homes, fearing the coming battles. Russia is blowing up bridges and laying mines to prepare for their departure. I had previously marked Vyshche Solone liberated, but I have changed it to "contested."

Ukraine liberated Bilohorivka (G) on the west bank of Lake Terny and perhaps Ivanivka (H). Novolyubivka (I) is still in Russian hands. There are rumors that Ukraine crossed Lake Terny and entered Terny today (J), but I believe the story is far-fetched. More likely, recon or special forces are operating in the area. Ukraine is generally moving toward Makiivka (K), but they have not yet reached the town.

Ukraine has entered Zarichne in the north (3) and liberated Stavky (L), Drobysheve (M), and Yampil (N). Ukraine has entered the southern side of Lyman and controls the entire area around the train tracks (4). Ukraine is attacking the area around Torske (5), they may have liberated Dibrova (6) (maybe even days ago, I never found confirmation), and there are firefights near Kreminna (7). I do not believe Ukraine is attacking Kreminna, but there could be recon or special forces there. Civilians in Kreminna claim Russians packed into vehicles and went into the forest on the morning of September 30th.

My sources in and around Lyman firmly state they have not encircled Russian forces. But they believe they can do it soon. Just bare in mind how difficult it is to surround an enemy force, it takes proper military execution, and these things don't generally happen on their own.

I have focused most of my research on the Luhansk area, so from here on out, I have much less detail to discuss.

I do not have any specific news or updates about the Bakhmut area. Russia attacked Vyimka (8), Bakhmutske (9), Vesela Dolyna (10), Zaitseve (11), Odradivka (12), Mykoliavka Druha (13), Kurdyumivka (14), and Ozarianivka (15).

In the New York area, Russia attacked Mayorsk (16), Zalizne (17), and New York itself (18). But, again, I have no interesting information about any of these attacks.

In the Donetsk area, Russia attacked Pervomaiske (19), Pobjeda (20), and Pavlivka (21). Of interest, Russia posted a video of fighting in Pisky, although they probably claim it is in Pervomaiske to save face.

In Kherson, Russians attacked Bezimenne (22) and claim that Ukraine attacked Davydiv Brid (23). Ukraine has been preparing to attack Davydiv Brid for some time, using missile strikes and large artillery barrages to soften the Russian defenses. But unfortunately, the attack supposedly failed. Again, this is coming from Russian propagandist sources, so you should take the whole story with a grain of salt.

One last bit of exciting information: there is a video of a small arms fire in Tokmak. I heard an ammunition warehouse detonated here as well, but I have not been able to confirm this as of writing. I have no explanation for the small arms fire.