Update for October 20th
Here is an update for the military situation on October 20th. I will not write about any possible future attacks from the territory of Belarus and will focus on Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Russia is hitting the border towns of Kharkiv with artillery, rockets, mortars, tanks, and aviation. In addition, they have launched several small attacks on the border town of Ohirtseve (1).
Ukraine held a bridgehead north of Kupyansk, but in recent days Russia has counterattacked and claimed to have pushed Ukraine out of the towns of Horobivka and Dvorichne (2).
In Dvorichne, Russia claims to have taken control of the train station in the middle of the town. Unfortunately, I have not been able to verify this claim, but it is plausible.
East of Kupyansk, Ukraine is steadily applying pressure to the east (3,4,5). Ukraine is heavily shelling the string of towns between Pershotravneve and Kotlyarivka, and in return, Russia is heavily shelling the area near Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka.
Near Lyman, Russia seems to have stopped their main attack west toward Torske, Terny, and Novosadove, but they are heavily shelling them.
The pink arrows represent recent attacks that are no longer known to be ongoing. The same applies to pale blue arrows. The meaning of “ongoing” is not a set-in-stone rule, and I am using it somewhat arbitrarily, so don’t read into it too much.
Near Siversk, Russia attacks Bilohorivka (6) and Spirne (7) to slow the Ukrainian advance. Unfortunately, I have very little news about either of these Russian attacks. However, Ukrainian and Russian sources suggest Ukraine may be nearing the Lysychansk Oil Refinery, so maybe the Russian attacks near Spirne are not going well.
Russian forces are trying to find a way around Soledar after having been soundly defeated in the town.
To the northeast of Soledar, Russians are trying to go around Yakovlivka (8). Still, as I have written previously, it is difficult for Russia to go around this town because Ukraine controls all of the dominant heights in Yakovlivka itself and in Vesele behind it.
To the south of Soledar, Russians are also trying to push south toward Bakhmutske (9), but they do not seem to have had much success. Russians proudly describe the fighting as “southeast” of Soledar. Emphasis on the east. The only thing southeast of Soledar is Pokrovske, implying that Russia does not fully control that town.
In Bakhmut, Russia is attacking Patrisa Lumumby Street (10), and they seem to have had some success. They claim to have captured the furniture factory (A) and the ceramic factory (B). Neither capture is confirmed. Ukraine controls the drywall factory (C) and the winery (D). The fighting in this area is brutal for both sides, and there are a lot of casualties. Russia is pounding the area with heavy artillery.
On October 19th, Ukraine counterattacked in the direction of the asphalt factory (11), which Russia claimed failed. But today, October 20th, Russia attacked the asphalt factory (12). So maybe the Ukrainian attack was a success?
In addition, there is ongoing fighting near the garbage dump (13).
South of Bakhmut, there is brutal fighting around Opytne (14). I do not have an update regarding the status of Ivanhrad expressly, so I assume nothing has changed. But regardless of Ivanhrad (which is 1 street), the fighting in Opytne is brutal, and the situation is not great for Ukraine. There are a lot of casualties for both sides, primarily due to heavy artillery fire.
Russia is pushing west toward Klishiivka (15) and north toward Odradivka (16). Unfortunately, I do not have news about either of these areas.
In the New York area, Russia attacked the fortified train station in Mayorsk (17), New York (18), and, well, the Novokalynove area (19).
Mayorsk and New York have been on the front line for eight years, and I don’t have more to add.
Novokalynove, though, is a newer development. On October 18th and 19th, Ukraine claimed to repel attacks on Novokalynove.
On the 20th, Wargonzo, who is (no matter how much I hate admitting it) a somewhat reliable Russian source, claimed that Russia was assaulting Keramik, which is a tiny appendix on the rear of Novokalynove.
This assault implies Russia captured Novokalynove, which I have seen no confirmation of from any reputable source. I am skeptical, and I am trying to confirm the status of this area.
South of Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Opytne (20), where they claim to make little incremental progress “one meter at a time.” To put it bluntly, Russia controlled a section of the town at one point, only to be driven back out in a counterattack. And that was weeks ago, and I don’t think they have gotten close to that level of success since.
Russia heavily shelled the southern part of Pervomaiske, leveling every existing structure (they were, at best, empty husks to begin with). The artillery forced Ukraine to withdraw from this southern section, and Russia at least superficially controls it (21). But, realistically, it is likely no man’s land.
Russia is also attacking Nevelske (22), Krasnohorivka (23), Marinka (24), and Novomykhailivka (25) without notable changes.
Here is an image of what I call “the southeast corner,” the area between Donetsk and Velyka Novosilka. Lots of artillery fire.
South of Hulyaipole, Ukraine is attacking Kostyantynivka (26). Ukraine is making progress in this direction, but it is slow. Hulyaipole is heavily shelled and targeted with S-300 missiles, one of which destroyed a school.
Orikhiv is suffering from withering artillery fire. Russia is shelling it for 5-7 hours per day. Ukraine is attacking south toward Robotyne (27), Nerserianka (28), and Pyatykhatky (29). Ukraine is progressing in all three areas, especially Pyatykhatky, but the progress is slow.
Zooming out, Russia is firing missiles and suicide fronts into Zaporizhzhia and the surrounding towns. On October 20th, Russia destroyed a school in Komyshuvakha with a missile strike.
South of Zaporizhzhia, Russia is adding reinforcements and building extra defenses in Orlyanske and between Mykhailivka and Pryshyb (the two highlighted areas). In Orlyanske the Russian soldiers were seen looting local houses, reportedly looking for food.
Reportedly, Russia moved a large column into Mala Bilozerka on the 20th and put the equipment near the wide part of the ravine in town. As the story goes, Ukraine struck this area with two volleys of MLRS (of unknown type), and the surviving Russians fled south. This story is unconfirmed.
There is heavy shelling on both sides of the Dnipro river near Nikopol and Enerhodar.
In the northern part of the Kherson region, there are many rumors about large Ukrainian attacks. I am skeptical that they are occurring. However, I know there is heavy shelling and a lot of Russian aviation.
Russia repeatedly hits Mykolaiv with suicide drones and missile attacks. Russia is heavily shelling the M14 highway and just east of the highway in the southern part of Myrne. They are also heavily shelling the area around Ternovi Pody.
