Update for October 7-9
Here is my update for October 7th through October 9th. Not much happened on the 7th, and on the 8th and 9th, I was sick, so it was published today, on the 10th.
If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
In the Kharkiv area, Russia launched several minor attacks on the border region (1,2), which accomplished nothing. Russia launched airstrikes from Russian airspace and fired missiles into Kharkiv city.
In the general Kupyansk area, Ukraine liberated a line of towns moving in a northeasterly direction toward Stelmakhivka (3). On the other hand, Russia is hurriedly digging defenders in the village of Kolomyichkha (4) in a desperate attempt to defend Svatove, which is getting dangerously close to the front line.
Near Lyman, Russia pushed a minor attack west toward Terny (5), achieving nothing. They also build defenses in Pshenychne (6) and within the forests north of Rubizhne (7).
North of Bakhmut, Russia is desperately trying to attack but suffering very high casualties. There are attacks near Vyimka (8), Bilohorivka (9), Soledar (10), Bakhmutske (11), Krasna Hora (12), and Bakhmut (13) itself.
Russia is trying to maneuver around Soledar because the defenses are too strong to break through, but moving through the fields around the town leaves their forces exposed to artillery fire and heavy machine guns.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is a little different. Russia advanced to the garbage dump (14), and they attacked Ivanhrad and Opytne through the newly captured Vesela Dolyna (15) and Zaitseve (16).
They are also attacking the tiny hamlet of Andriivka (17) and the general Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka area (18).
These events threaten the southern flank of Bakhmut, and I have heard many differing accounts about the city’s status, but I do not feel the city is in any real danger at this point.
Ukraine is suffering many casualties in this area, but by all reports, Russia’s losses are significant. I don’t understand how they can continue these attacks with this level of failure, and at some point, I imagine they have to stop.
Near New York, Russia is attacking the fortified train station of Mayorsk (19) and New York itself (20). This area is more or less the same as the pre-February 24th borders.
Near Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vesele (21), Kamyanka (22), Pervomaiske (2), and Neveske (25). Russians claim Ukraine is attacking “Pisky,” an ambiguous statement because many things could be “Pisky.” Is Republica Mist Pisky? Is the Anthill Pisky?
Speaking of which, the Anthill (A) is in the gray area right now. Russia doesn’t control it, but Ukraine’s control is fleeting and situational. Russia took Republica Mist near the beginning of the month, although the exact date is unknown.
There are videos of Russians attacking Pervomaiske and penetrating a few blocks into the town. These videos depict reconnaissance forces, not proper areas of control. Often, the videos cut off abruptly at the end, likely because Ukraine identified and drove the recon back out of Pervomaiske. The defenders claim they have not lost any of their positions.
As such, it would seem logical that an attack on “Pisky” could be a Ukrainian attempt to take back Republica Mist (24), which is technically inside of Pisky and forms the outermost defense of Pervomaiske. However, it could also be a Ukrainian attempt to retake Anthill (A).
Furthermore, recently there were reports of Russia shelling “Pisky.” I believe these reports refer to the Anthill (A) with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Oh, and in the recent past, there were Russian attacks on “Opytne and Vodyane,” which I said I interpreted as an attack on Anthill. Not quite. As it turns out, the easternmost portion of Vodyane touches the westernmost portion of Opytne, so this likely meant Russia was attacking the western part of Opytne.
A few kilometers south of Pisky, Russia continuously attacks Krasnohorivka (26) and Novo Mykhailivka (28). There are also minor attacks toward Pobjeda (27). In addition, Russians claim to have entered the town of Novomykhailivka this weekend, although I do not have any confirmation.
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine is attacking south from Hulyaipole toward Polohy (29). They expanded the gray area south toward Polohy, but I do not believe they have liberated any towns or significant defensive positions.
I am focusing this update on military activity and not terrorist attacks. Still, I will state that Russia is launching nightly terrorist attacks on Zaporizhzhia, which have destroyed hundreds of homes and murdered dozens of civilians.
Russia appears to have stabilized the Kherson front. Russia seems to have forces near Davydiv Brid (B), and I believe Bezimenne is contested (C ). Ukraine Liberated the towns of Nova Kamyanka (D) and Tryfonivka (E), but I do not know how far south Ukraine has gone from Dudchany.
Closer to Mykolaiv, Russia attacked Liubomyrivka (30) and Ternovi Pody (31). However, they seem to have succeeded in Ternovi Pody and may have actually captured it.
Finally, I am sure everyone knows about a piece of news already: the Kerch Bridge suffered severe damage on October 8th. The cause of the damage is unproven, but it is likely the result of a truck bomb, also called a VBIED (by insufferable nerds). The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks.
The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks. pic.twitter.com/gF3O1vXaK9
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) October 10, 2022
