Update for November 16th
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Ukraine is attacking in the direction of Kyzemivka. I don’t know about the current status of Novoselivske. I think Ukraine controls at least part of the town, and the rest is likely a gray area. Ukraine has not advanced significantly in either of these towns in ten or more days. Russia has suffered significant casualties in this area, and several dozen Russians notably mobilized men from Moscow, surrendered. On the other hand, Ukraine has also suffered significant losses, especially to artillery fire.
Ukraine has total control over Makiivka, but the town is currently empty. Ukraine is attacking east toward Ploshchanka from Makiivka, and I believe they are also attacking Ploshchanka from the south. The front line appears centered on several forest strips around the town. Russian forces in Ploshchanka are under considerable stress, and they describe the situation as “difficult.” However, Russian artillery is dulling the Ukrainian attack.
Civilians spotted Russia unloading heavy equipment from trains in Bilokurakyne in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian soldiers are moving into homes in the Markivka community in eastern Luhansk Oblast. Russia kept infantry in this town for at least two months.
Ukraine heavily shelled Svatove, likely with MLRS, and Starobilsk, with HIMARS.
Yesterday, November 15th, civilians noted Russian trains full of military equipment in Sabivka (in the afternoon) and Rodakove (in the evening). Today, civilians in Zymohirya (the next town on the line) spotted Russia unloading heavy equipment in the train station. Shortly after, Ukraine fired six HIMARS, striking both the train station and the kindergarten.
North of Bakhmut, Russia is still attacking Bilohorivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske. Russia is also attacking Bakhmut itself and Kurdyumivka south of Bakhmut. Generally speaking, over the past few days, Russia’s attacks in this area were significantly less intense than in the week or so prior. Although I believe they upped their intensity again this afternoon and evening. Russia has been shelling this area exceptionally heavily.
Russia took control of Mayorsk on November 13th, but I have heard two unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has retaken the area. However, I have it listed as under Russian control as I seek further confirmation. There are no reports of Russian attacks in this area.
Update: Russia attacked in the Mayorsk region repeatedly today. Ukraine may have fallen back to another defensive line, I am not sure.
Russia is trying to surround Avdiivka and force a Ukrainian withdrawal. North of Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Novokalynove and Kamyanka.
Update: The fighting around Kamyanka is fluid. Ukraine and Russia are taking turns attacking. Ukraine moves forward, Russia pushes them back. Russia moves forward, Ukraine pushes them back. Et cetera. The front line fluidly moves back and forth. Russia and Ukraine are reinforcing this position.
South of Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. Vodyane is a brutal fight for both Russians and Ukrainians, and neither side has made advances in the past several days. However, Russia has advanced to within a kilometer of Nevelske.
Today, Russia published a video of a tank battle in Pervomaiske, which appears recently filmed. Russia attacked Pervomaiske with two tank companies on November 10th, so perhaps the video is from then. I have marked the locations of the tanks in this attack with tractor icons. They are very close to Republica Mist. The tanks never go beyond Stavok Myyka (a large pond that runs parallel to the lower part of Pervomaiske) either to the west or the north.
You can see Republica Mist in the video
I wrote about a large tank attack here several days ago. I don’t know if this is that attack, but it is the same town and about the right number of tanks. https://t.co/a5WiiCDyoF
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) November 16, 2022
To the east of Donetsk, Russia is attacking Krasnohorivka, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka. Although the attack on Krasnohorivka is relatively minor, Russia will not begin its attack in earnest until, or if, they capture Nevelske.
Marinka is under heavy artillery barrage, and there is brutal urban fighting. Russia hopes to flank Marinka somehow, but their attempts to attack south into either Pobjeda or Novomykhailivka have failed.
Russians have taken superficial control over Pavlivka, but they suffer significant casualties from artillery, air strikes, missile strikes, and ATGMS. In response, Russia is firing large artillery barrages and utilizing Lancet loitering munitions to strike Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers.
In the past two days, Russia has fired a tremendous artillery barrage into Velyka Novosilka, and they are assaulting Vremivka. Ukraine has built considerable defenses in Velyka Novosilka over the past few months, turning it into a fortress.
Russia is heavily shelling the Hulyaipole area and has been doing so for weeks. There are reports of fighting near Marfopil and Kostyantynivka. Later this evening, there were some unsubstantiated rumors of a significant Russian attack on Hulyaipole, which would mean attacking through one or both of these towns. There might be more information tomorrow. I believe Russia is rotating troops in this area. I have not seen confirmation of a significant Russian attack, but it is possible.
Russia is heavily shelling Orikhiv, as they have done for weeks. Interestingly, Ukraine noted shelling near Nesterianka, a town on or near the front line. There are also reports of fighting near Pyatykhatky.
Ukraine destroyed an ammo warehouse near Tokmak and damaged a rail bridge near Chernihivka.
Near Mariupol, Russians are reportedly building defenses near Urzuf, west of the town. Russia is preparing defenses all the way around the city, not just the northern approach. Remember, Russia used this western approach to Mariupol to attack the city.
Ukraine fired a series of strikes deep into the southern part of the Kherson oblast. Likely all of these strikes are HIMARS.
Finally, late tonight, there were explosions near Dzhankoi airport in Crimea. Russia reportedly has a significant number of aircraft at this airport. The explosions are likely the air result of air defense, but it is unknown to me if any potential weapons got through to attack these aircraft on the ground. Probably some manner of drone, either reconnaissance or long-range suicide drones.
