Update for October 2-3
The situation unfolds faster than I can comfortably verify information, so much of what I will say will be couched in this reality. In short, the Russian defensive line collapses in Kharkiv Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, and Kherson Oblast. There is little action in Zaporizhzhia oblast, and Donetsk oblast has had few changes.
If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Ukraine is not making any significant attacks from the Kupyansk bridgehead in any direction. Instead, they use drones and artillery to fire on Russian positions while recon and special forces exert pressure on Russian defenses.
Ukraine moved north and east from the Lyman bridgehead to liberate Pidlyman, Borova (1), Shyikivka, Izyumske, and Druzhelyubivka (3). Russia withdrew from these positions without much of a fight after being defeated in Pidlyman. Russia doesn't have much presence north of Borova, and perhaps Ukraine has liberated those towns already. I expect confirmation of liberation along the Oskil river to Kupyansk in the next day or two.
Russia is withdrawing to Svatove in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine's next objective. Ukraine is moving northeast from the Lyman bridgehead toward Raihorodka (2), and there are conflicting reports about the town's state. Ukraine may have liberated it already. Ukraine has likely released the entire right bank of the Zherebets River up to Raihorodok, including Makiivka.
There are conflicting reports that Ukraine has pushed east from Nevske and taken control of the P66 highway intersection between Ploshchanka (A) and Krasnorichenske (B). There are even rumors that Ukraine has liberated Krasnorichenske (5). However, other reports claim only Ukrainian recon has made it this far and that the P66 highway remains in Russian control, albeit under constant threat of Ukrainian fire. Therefore, this entire area is labeled "contested" on the map.
Ukraine is firing artillery into Kreminna, although I do not believe they are assaulting the town. The primary Russian defensive position is in the northwest near the cemetery (red), and they appear to have an HQ in the blue highlighted area. Ukraine is heavily shelling both of these positions.
There are whispers of a Ukrainian advance toward Lysychansk near Siversk, but I have not seen any proof. Instead, Russians are complaining about Ukraine's robust defenses near Spirne (6), where Ukrainian defenders are taking advantage of underground industrial areas. Russia is trying to push in the direction of Vyimka (7), but Russian sources say their advance has been slow and fraught with danger.
Near Bakhmut are stories about Ukraine performing a widescale counterattack and fleeing the areas around Bakhmut. I believe this is Russian propaganda. On the other hand, they may have some truth. I have stated before that Ukraine performs daily counterattacks around Bakhmut. And I believe the Ukrainians rotated some units out of combat. But stories about a wholesale withdrawal or a large offensive are unsupported by available evidence.
Russia is attacking Bakhmutske (8), Bakhmut (9), Vesela Dolyna (10), Zaitseve (11), and Odradivka (12). They have been attacking these same areas for weeks now. I believe Russia has made some progress in Zaitseve, which suffers extremely heavy shelling.
Near Donetsk, Russia attacked Pervomaiske (13) and Nevelske (14). There are Russian claims of considerable advances in Pervomaiske, but I have been unable to verify the claims. I am not saying it is false, merely that I have had trouble contacting people in the area.
In the Kherson area, On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river. This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications.
Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions (15). Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance. This statement is controversial, there are rumors that Ukraine broke through Dudchany, but I cannot find evidence. Perhaps more evidence will emerge in the coming days. Ukraine also pushed southwest and took Lyubymivka (18), Bilyivka (19), Shevchenkivka, and Ukrainka (17). There are rumors that Ukraine also took Novovokresenske and Chervone.
On October 2nd, Ukraine also moved toward Davydiv Brid and established positions in the wooded areas southwest about 1km from the town (21).
Ukraine will need to attack and secure four major towns in this area of Kherson to break the Russian position.
First, Dudchany (E). Ukraine likely controls at least half the town, but if Russia still holds the southern part of the town, they can still move supplies (although it will be under Ukrainian artillery fire).
Second, Mylove (F) is a significant artery that feeds toward the Russian position on the Inhulets river to the northwest. But neither of these towns is enough because there are still roads to get around them.
Finally, the two vital towns are Tryfonivka (G) and Borozenske (H). If Ukraine controls these two towns, then Davydiv Brid and everything north of it on the Inhulets is encircled. Ukraine would hold every road in and out.
Russia is continuously attacking Ukrainian cities. They launched suicide drone attacks on Odesa and missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Bakhmut.
On the night of October 3rd, Russia struck the power plant in Kharkiv, causing a massive fire and a power outage.
The strike on Kupyansk directly hit and destroyed the hospital and killed an anesthesiologist. The strike destroyed all four floors of the hospital.
