Update for October 4-5
In the past 48 hours, Ukraine has prepared for a new offensive in Luhansk oblast and mounted a highly successful offensive in Kherson. Meanwhile, Russia had several costly failed attacks in Donbas and launched terrorist attacks on several Ukrainian cities.
If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
In Kharkiv, Russia launched small attacks on Strilecha (1) and Zelene (2). These attacks do little more than force Ukraine to keep troops near the border to protect the border towns. In addition, Russia launched Geran-2 suicide drones into Kharkiv tonight. The damage is unknown to me.
Near Kupyansk, Russia built a defensive line that connects Pischane (A), Kyslivka (B), and Orlyanske (C). To my knowledge, Ukraine has made little effort to push east from the Kupyansk bridgehead.
Ukraine is pushing up the Oskil river from Borova (3), and they likely have liberated all of the towns along the river, but I have not seen confirmation.
Ukraine is pushing toward Raihorodka (4), and they have liberated Makiivka (D) and likely also Ploshchanka (E), but I have left the latter labeled contested.
Ukraine is pushing toward Krasnorichenske (5), and they have fire control over the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna.
Russians still claim to control half of Makiivka, but I do not see evidence supporting this claim.
Russians also claimed to have launched a counterattack out of Kreminna and captured Dibrova (6). Therefore, I marked the town as contested, awaiting more information.
Locals claim Ukrainian forces have been in Kreminna and that sporadic fighting is taking place. I assume this is likely recon or special forces.
Ukraine will likely launch an attack toward Svatove (F) very soon, perhaps even tonight.
Russia may have lost up to 75% of the special forces it used to defend Lyman. These soldiers were among the finest soldiers in the Russian military. It is unthinkable to lose such an asset in such a stupid way.
In the Siversk area, there are more rumors of Ukraine fighting in the “outskirts” of Lysychansk, but I assume this means Bilohorivka. Perhaps they are moving toward Shypylivka (G).
Russia continues its attack on Spirne (7) and Vyimka (8), but their attacks have not been successful. Both are heavily fortified. Spirne’s large industrial bunkers are difficult to damage with artillery or bombing.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia has launched regular attacks in Bakhmutske (9), Bakhmut (10), Zaitseve (11), and the Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka (12), and Mayorsk (13) areas. All failed. Reportedly, Russia suffered severe casualties.
Unfortunately, a famous and highly respected Ukrainian, Vyacheslav Zaitsev, died fighting near Bakhmut today. He was one of the Cyborgs, the soldiers who fought in the siege of Donetsk Airport in 2014.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia is assaulting Pervomaiske (14). They claim to have significant success, but I cannot confirm it. The videos posted indicate minimal movement. I expanded the contested area toward the town, but I am unsure whether the extent of control has changed much. I am still seeking confirmation.
South of Donetsk, Russia attacked Novomykhailivka (15) and Vuhledar (16). Both were without much success. I believe Mykilske is no man’s land.
In the Zaporizhzhia oblast area, Russia launched large missile attacks, namely Iskanders, perhaps supported by S-300. The strikes killed two city leaders in Hulyaipole and damaged various pieces of infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. Miraculously, Ukrainian air defenses shoot down an Iskander, which is a difficult feat.
In the Kherson region, Ukraine broke through the Russian defenses at Starosillya (17) and Davydiv Brid (18), which shattered the Russian defensive line on the Inhulets. This event has forced Russian forces to hastily build a new defensive line between Mylove, Borozenske, Ishchenka, and Bruskynske. Today Ukraine repeatedly assaulted Bruskynske (21), but I believe it is still in Russian hands. But it could fall soon.
Closer to Kherson, Ukraine is pushing east toward Zelenyi Hai (22), which they may have liberated already. I believe Ukraine now controls the entire highway between Balhodatne and Kyselivka (23), but I do not know if they have secured Kyselivka itself.
On October 4th, Russia launched Geran-2 suicide drones from Crimea, moving along the Odesa Highway (E95, arrow 24) to hit Bila Tserkva, a city in Kyiv Oblast over 500km north of Crimea. Likely, they flew along the highway to mask the sound of their engine. Tonight, October 5th, they launched more drones from Crimea, although they hit Odesa.
